This post is hopefully of informational value to ‘middle ground’ voters that are unhappy with PAP policies but have a serious dilemma in relation to voting for the opposition because of inadvertently denying PAP a simple majority in Parliament. After all, this seems to be PAP’s latest line of attack after witnessing the WP’s popularity and the resurgence of the SDP. They are suggesting that they might go out of power (which I believe is statistically improbable.)
Alternatively, you might be, like many of my friends, very keen to vote for the opposition but have doubts about whether the candidates will be able to adequately represent you and effectively debate policies in Parliament.
What I have done here is to eliminate certain constituencies from the analysis altogether. I consider them to be safe seats for the PAP because of the huge margin of victory that they secured in the last election and the sheer improbability of a large swing against the PAP. If you are part of the hardcore opposition voter (at least 30% in any given constituency), you would surely vote for the opposition this time around regardless of the candidate. If you hate the PAP and find that the calibre of opposition is not up to par in your constituency, you would probably spoil your vote as many of my friends have indicated.
Anecdotally, I am aware of friends in Ang Mo Kio GRC, Pasir Ris-Punggol and Radin Mas who have already indicated that whilst they like to vote for the opposition, they do not find the candidates in their constituencies credible enough for them to vote for opposition. However, the worry that they have is that voting for the PAP may end up increasing the popular vote across the country and the PAP will treat this as a signal that their major policies in relation to population growth, CPF and retirement planning, and cost of living have been endorsed by the people. There is a need for PAP’s popular vote to reduce for them to get the right message. It is entirely possible that even if the PAP losing one more GRC in this elections, they will look to the popular vote to say that the people have given a mandate especially of the overall vote shifts in their direction.
I can understand where my friends are coming from and although I don’t like the idea of spoiling the vote, I see why some voters feel that they are left with no other choice.
In this analysis, I have gone through the constituencies that have obtained more than 65% in the 2011 elections. Given the strong PAP candidates with large ground support in those constituencies (like Finance Minister Tharman in Jurong GRC or Teo Ho Pin in Bukit Panjang SMC) and the relative weakness of opposition candidates in other constituencies (like the RP team in Ang Mo Kio GRC or špossibilities for an opposition win.
The following are safest seats for the PAP:
Bukit Panjang
Hong Kah North
Radin Mas
Yuhua
Ang Mo Kio GRC (6 seats)
West Coast GRC (4)
Jurong GRC (5)
Sembawang GRC (5)
To pull off a win in these constituencies, the opposition would have to hope for a 15% to 20% vote swing. That’s like a fantasy land prediction and I am placing these constituencies out of the equation. So, that’s 24 seats in the bag.
Next, let’s look at all the other contested seats in the last election which I have arranged from the closest contest to the widest margin.
Constituencies with the lowest vote shares for PAP in 2011.
In a previous post that I made before nomination day, I only looked at the constituencies where PAP obtained less than 60%. However, after nomination day and considering the improved slate of candidates that some of the opposition parties have fielded, I realise that it is not improbable that some constituencies could experience a high vote swing although the national average might hover around 5% to 7%. In the 2011 elections, certain constituencies recorded a swings as high as 11% to 14%.
So, here is the list of constituencies that can be marked as danger zones for the PAP and as presenting a chance for the opposition. (Note: I am working on the assumption of WP retaining its current seats and have left those constituencies out. That is, in itself, a big assumption I am making):
Potong Pasir SMC – 50.36% – 17,327
Joo Chiat SMC – 51% – 22,069
East Coast GRC (5 seats) – 54.8% – 120,324
Marine Parade GRC (5 seats) – 56.6% – 154,451
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (5 seats) – 56.93% – 122,492
Tampines GRC (5 seats) – 57.2% – 137,532
Nee Soon GRC (5 seats) – 58.4% – 148,290
Sengkang West SMC – 58.1% – 26,882
Moulmein-Kallang GRC (4 seats) – 58.55% – 87,595
Mounbatten SMC – 58.62% – 23,731
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (4 seats) – 60.08% – 91,6070
Pioneer SMC – 60.73% – 25,745
Choa Chu Kang GRC (5 seats) – 61.2% – 158,648
Sembawang GRC (5) – 63.9% – 142,459
Pasir ris-Punggol GRC (6) – 64.79% – 168,971
Choa Chu Kang GRC, Sembawang GRC, Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC:
| Chua Chu Kang GRC | 119,931 | People’s Action Party | Gan Kim Yong Low Yen Ling Yee Chia Hsing Zaqy Mohamad |
|
| People’s Power Party | Goh Meng Seng Lee Tze Shih Low Wai Choo Syafarin Bin Sarif |
I have gone through the profile of the individual opposition candidates in these constituencies, watched some of their rally speeches online and read about their party platforms. Both SDA and NSP are unimpressive. NSP has been in the midst of quite a storm with their decision to contest in MacPherson (causing a 3 cornered fight there) and the resignation of their Sec-Gen. I am sure the voters in those constituencies would not be impressed with either NSP or SDA. Although the SDA candidates don’t appear good on paper nor in their rally speeches, I understand that they have been ‘working the ground’ in Pasir-Ris Punggol. I doubt if that alone is going to turn things their way. Perhaps, it would be an improved performance from the last time. PPP in CCK is better than SDA and NSP but it appears to be crowded out in terms of the attention that they have been able to generate. The main buzz has been about WP and SDP.
I am taking Choa Chu Kang, Sembawang and Pasir-Ris Punggol out of the equation.
For the voters here, if you feel strongly about the opposition cause, you will probably vote for the opposition. I expect that to be about 35% of the voters in these wards. If you are a middle ground voter that wants to send a signal to the PAP and you are not impressed with the candidates here, you would probably spoil your votes like some of my friends.
Joo Chiat SMC and Moulmein-Kallang GRC:
These two constituencies have been wiped out by the Boundary Review Committee. Joo Chiat is part of Marine Parade GRC and could affect that GRC adversely. Moulmein-Kallang has been split up and parts of it come under the newly created Jalan Besar GRC.
The hottest contests within the margin of a 10% swing:
Constituency PAP’s % Total Voters
Potong Pasir SMC – 50.36% – 17,327
East Coast GRC (5 seats) (now 4) – 54.8% – 120,324
Fengshan SMC (carved out of East Coast)
Marine Parade GRC (5 seats) – 56.6% – 154,451
MacPherson SMS (carved out of Marine Parade)
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (5 seats) – 56.93% – 122,492
Tampines GRC (5 seats) – 57.2% – 137,532
Nee Soon GRC (5 seats) – 58.4% – 148,290
Sengkang West SMC – 58.1% – 26,882
Mounbatten SMC – 58.62% – 23,731
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (4 seats) – 60.08% – 91,607
Pioneer SMC – 60.73% – 25,745
The SMCs in the above shortlist:
(Voter numbers and Candidate names from Wikipedia)
| Potong Pasir SMC | 17,407 | Singapore People’s Party | Lina Chiam | |
| People’s Action Party | Sitoh Yih Pin |
| Fengshan SMC | 23,427 | People’s Action Party | Cheryl Chan Wei Ling | |
| Workers’ Party | Dennis Tan Lip Fong |
| MacPherson SMC | 28,511 | Workers’ Party | Chen Jiaxi Bernard | |
| National Solidarity Party | Cheo Chai Chen | |||
| People’s Action Party | Tin Pei Ling |
| Sengkang West SMC | 30,119 | Workers’ Party | Koh Choong Yong | |
| People’s Action Party | Lam Pin Min |
| Mountbatten SMC | 24,143 | Singapore People’s Party | Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss | |
| People’s Action Party | Lim Biow Chuan |
| Pioneer SMC | 25,458 | People’s Action Party | Cedric Foo Chee Keng | |
| National Solidarity Party | Ong Beng Soon Elvin |
Lina Chiam has done a very good job in Parliament over the last 4 years. I did a comparison between her and Sitoh Yih Pin on their record in terms of Parliamentary speeches and she has risen to speak 83 times in comparison to Sitoh’s 39 times. Although there were doubts about whether she was the right candidate for Potong Pasir in 2011, she has proven herself worthy over the last 4 years in Parliament.
Dennis Tan in Fengshan is a strong candidate for the Workers’ Party and this new SMC might well have been carved out of East Coast GRC to save that GRC. I suspect that Fengshan was the weakest link in East Coast GRC. PAP for its part has fielded a new candidate deviating from its usual habit of fielding new candidates in a GRC. Fengshan is a possible win for the opposition.
Tin Pei Ling in MacPherson is likely to be strong and the 3 cornered fight may split the opposition vote (although I don’t see the NSP candidate garnering more than 5%). I’ll put this down as a PAP win.
Both Sengkang West and Mountbatten require an 8% swing. This is going to be quite difficult. I haven’t kept a close watch on the Sengkang West contest although the WP candidate there is quite credible and could shave off a few percentages. Jeannette in Mounbatten has run a very visible campaign and appears to have worked tirelessly during this campaign period. Mountbatten is a battle of the lawyers. Between Sengkang West and Mounbatten, I think Mountbatten stands a better chance of going to the opposition. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if the PAP retains both seats.
Pioneer SMC? NSP? Forget it. This one will stay with the PAP.
Best case scenario for opposition: 4 new SMCs
Most likely outcome: 2 new SMCs
The Shortlisted GRCs
As for the GRCs, after considering the profile of the candidates, I believe that the most viable opposition candidates are in the following GRCs:
(Voter Numbers and Candidate Names are from Wikipedia)
The WP candidates in East Coast and Marine Parade GRCs and the SPP and SDP candidates in their respective GRCs will be a welcome addition to Parliament. I believe that they will improve the quality of debate in the new Parliament. Hopefully, voters think likewise and deliver them the seats.
I am discounting all the other GRCs because of the combination of candidate quality and the swing required.
Tanjong Pagar (5 seats) is an unknown element and the SingFirst team there is a dark horse. Don’t write them off. Marsiling-Yew tee (4 seats) is a new GRC and the voter dynamics there is unclear. If SDP’s resurgence sweeps through that GRC, they might win it there as well.
Best case scenario for opposition: East Coast, Marine Parade, Bishan-Toa Payoh, Holland-Bukit Timah, Marsiling-Yew Tee, Tanjong Pagar. = 27 seats
Most probable outcome: A win for WP in the 4 member East Cost GRC.
In Summary
Best case scenario for opposition: 31 new seats from 6 GRCs and 4 SMCs + the retention of the 7 current WP seats = 38 out of the 89 Parliamentary seats. This will deliver a simple majority to the PAP and prevent them from making constitutional amendments without consensus from other parties. This would be a fair development for Singapore as a whole.
Most probable outcome: 6 new seats from 1 GRC and 2 SMCs + the retention of the 7 current WP seats = 13 seats
My personal wish:
East Coast GRC, Marine Parade GRC, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC and Holland-Bukit Timah GRC should go to the opposition and for the SMCs, Fengshan, Potong Pasir, MacPherson and Mountbatten should go to the opposition in addition to the current 7 seats making it a total of 29 seats in Parliament.
Article 14 
Thoughtful essays. Well done.
Are u a journalist?
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Thank you, Terry. I am a Law Lecturer
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As they say: Absolute Power Corrupts.
Therefore, it will be difficult for the present generation of politicians to suddenly shift tack and permit a more responsive stance vis-a-vis the electorate. I envision a period of angst and soul searching at the top levels of the government as they grapple with what gates they should open wider.
I have waited for the changes to come for some decades and was only waiting for the proverbial nail to drop. The present PAP philosophy of guided thought can only co-exist within an electorate which is not ready to exercise their own personal wishes for their future.
But with education comes freedom of thought. And top quality education has been one of the linchpins of the PAP government.
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